The latest ColoradoCast, with a forecast through October 2023, shows the Colorado economy continuing to avert recession. In 16 the months of March and April, the actual economic growth exceeded the ColoradoCast and the forecast for the subsequent
months is for largely positive, albeit weak, growth in the state’s economy. The latest model projects only one month with negative annual rate growth, and that negative growth is only slightly negative, suggesting that the economy likely could retain a modest but positive rate of growth through the majority of the remainder of the year. This improved economic performance 150 coupled with the latest easing in inflation and the recent Federal Reserve decision to pause rate hikes reduces the risk of a major downturn in the Colorado economy.
Compared to the first quarter 2023 ColoradoCast, the current model shows the Colorado economy gaining some strength. The performance of most of the drivers of the ColordoCast improved in the latest model. Housing prices once again turned upward, the yield curve slightly steepened (although still inverted) and the risk premium came off marginally. These improvements, coupled with continued increases in equity markets were sufficient to maintain a forecast of modest growth with fewer months of projected economic declines.
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